Ep. 61 - Are We Overpricing Cyber War? A Reality Check on Systemic Risk - with Tom Johansmeyer
Hollywood sells cyber apocalypse. The data tells a different story.
For years, cyber war has been framed as the systemic threat that could destabilize the insurance market overnight. But does the evidence support that assumption, or are we pricing a risk that hasn’t materialized at the scale we fear?
In this episode, host Anthony Hess speaks with Tom Johansmeyer, Global Head of Index Classes at Price Forbes Re, and a doctoral researcher examining the intersection of insurance, economic security, and cyber conflict.
Drawing on case studies from NotPetya to large-scale infrastructure outages, Tom challenges how the industry thinks about cyber war exclusions, systemic cyber risk, and catastrophe benchmarks. He argues that many feared scenarios are either bounded in scale or comparable to natural catastrophe events the market already absorbs.
If that’s true, what does it mean for capital allocation, reinsurance structures, quota shares, and pricing discipline? This episode reframes the debate around systemic cyber risk, and explores what a more rational, scalable cyber insurance market could look like.
You’ll learn:
1. Why systemic cyber war risk may be overstated
2. How NotPetya reshaped underwriting psychology
3. What catastrophe benchmarks reveal about cyber scale
4. How fear impacts capital and reinsurance strategy
5. What a healthier cyber insurance market could look like
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Get in touch with Tom Johansmeyer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tjohansmeyer/
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About the host Anthony Hess:
Anthony is passionate about cyber insurance. He is the CEO of Asceris, which supports clients to respond to cyber incidents quickly and effectively. Originally from the US, Anthony now lives in Europe with his wife and two children.
Get in touch with Anthony on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthonyhess/ or email: ahess@asceris.com.
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Thanks to our friends at SAWOO for producing this episode with us!